All over the world vodka is the most popular strong alcoholic drink. Annually in the world 7-8 billion bottles of legally made vodka by a total cost approximately 45 billion To Russia is consumed is necessary 35 % of world(global) consumption in natural expression. Northern terrestrial territories in the greater degree are concentrated in our country, and, despite of fruits of a civilization, we remain the state with most strongly pronounced northern structure of consumption of alcohol. But the reasons of this phenomenon in Russia for a long time not so climatic, and social. In the last some years in total amount of sales of strong alcohol on a share of vodka are necessary about 20 % in money terms, that twice exceed volumes of realization of whisky and almost four times - cognac and бренди (on materials of clauses(articles) " the Way of the alcoholic market of Russia: From crisis in crisis ", the data of the Centre of researches federal and the regional markets of alcohol (ЦИФРРА), http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lko_krizis.asp and " the Review of the world market of vodka ", http: // www.tatalc.ru/tatalc2/? pg=3*bl=10*md=2*iddoc=10580).
Bright feature of the world(global) vodka market is presence of ten "drinking" countries in which it is realized 94 % of all made vodka (figure 1). In cost expression the three of countries - leaders looks as follows: USA - on their share is necessary 39 % of world(global) consumption of vodka in money terms, Russia - 24 % and Poland - 11 %. The others of 20 % of the vodka made in the world it is consumed on Ukraine, in Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Germany, England, Romania and Uzbekistan (on materials of clause(article) " the Review of the world market of vodka ", http: // www.tatalc.ru/tatalc2/? pg=3*bl=10*md=2*iddoc=10580).
Figure 1. Structure of consumption of vodka on the countries in cost expression.
Source - given clauses(articles) " the Review of the world market of vodka ", http: // www.tatalc.ru/tatalc2/? pg=3*bl=10*md=2*iddoc=10580
Apparently from figure 1, from ten countries drinking vodka five represent former Soviet Union. In opinion of experts, the nearest 5 years the structure "tens" hardly will change: cultural traditions, including traditions of consumption of alcoholic drinks, vary very slowly.
" Quiet times " in the market of vodka are seldom, and practically each three years in the market occur the events, braking his(its) development. So, in 1992 as a matter of fact there was the "disorder" of the alcoholic market connected to disintegration of Soviet Union. In 1995 - crisis of manufacture of the legal vodka, tightened(delayed) for 3 years (recession of legal manufacture with 135 up to 78 million has given per one year). Has struck on the market of vodka дефолт 1998. In 2001 excise warehouses therefore all system of commercial communications(connections) between manufacturers and distributors which was restored about half-year with the natural problems connected by replacement of excise marks was destroyed were created. In 2004 there was a surplus of import production in Russia, added problems to the Russian manufacturers. 2006 has passed in an atmosphere of the most powerful system administrative crisis: In the beginning of year there were from 2 about 4 months manufacturers of alcohol, and in July there was all branch after "introduction" in system EGAIS of the wholesale companies. 2007 has allowed branch to leave on practically pre-crisis volume of the market generally parameters. However with growth of the market of vodka and the share of a "nonconventional" hard liquor is increased by 12-15 %. Experts explain such dynamics(changes) displacement of preferences of the population. With a growing level of the income consumers even more often choose "статусные" drinks - cognac, whisky, бренди. Besides it, in our country the increasing popularity use gin, шнапс, саке, rum, кальвадос, граппа and others.
Experts mark, that by 2008 in the market there was an essential reduction obviously superfluous, formed in 1996 - 2001 г.г., quantities(amounts) of manufacturers of alcohol. During 2004 - 2007 г.г. There was an initial consolidation of alcoholic actives in hands of the private(individual) companies and integration of these companies - " Russian alcohol ", "Синергия", " Alcoholic factories " the Gross "," Омсквинпром "," the Formula Holding "," Harmony " etc.
Thus, by 2008 the Russian vodka branch has passed process of initial consolidation. In the market worked more than 350 manufacturers who are letting out in total approximately 5 thousand marks of vodka. Since January till September, 2008 (prior to the beginning of world(global) financial crisis) consolidation already regional manufacturers in frameworks, for example, the Siberian and Ural regions (on materials of clauses(articles) " the Market of strong alcoholic drinks in Russia ", data DISCOVERY Research Group, http: // www.equipnet.ru/market_review.php actively continued? cat=24*review=524 and " the Way of the alcoholic market of Russia: from crisis in crisis ", the data of the Centre of researches federal and the regional markets of alcohol (ЦИФРРА), http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lko_krizis.asp).
On results of the first half-year 2008 ten largest companies supervised 48,9 % of the market whereas one year ago, according to agency " Business Analytics ", their share made 44 %, and on results of 2007 - 46,3 % (figure 2). On results of 2008 consolidation has even more amplified: on a share of five largest companies it was necessary 34 % of the market (in 2007 - 30 %) (on materials of clause(article) " Closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786).
Figure 2. Dynamics(changes) of a share of ten largest companies - manufacturers of vodka in Russia
The source - given clauses(articles) " Is closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786
Market integration of the market influenced and a marketing policy(politics) of the companies. Prior to the beginning of world(global) financial crisis, in favorable macroeconomic conditions all forces of the companies were thrown on a gain of new price borders. Positioning of all appeared or анонсировавшихся new federal брендов in the market ("Кедровицы" from Alcoholic Siberian group, экс-"Омсквинпрома", Siberian vodka "Талка" from " Russian alcohol ", "Height" from АЗГ, "Prestige" from "Ladoga" and than others) as a last resort began from 130-140 roubles for 0,5 л, is more often - from 160-170 roubles for 0,5 л. Manufacturers did not hide that provided growth of sales by him(it) more expensive(dear) бренды, and cheap were frequently kept in assortment for the sake of preservation of " critical weight ". For example, largest Russian alcoholic company " Russian alcohol " at all did not spend means for promotion of cheapest vodka "Ямская" (the price for half-litre up to 100 roubles), And Open Company " the Gross " (АЗГ) in middle of 2008 has declared Alcoholic factories change of strategy and refusal of manufacture водок 100 roubles for a bottle 0,5 л are cheaper. (on materials of clause(article) " Is closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786).
However, during 2008 г.наблюдалось stage-by-stage decrease(reduction) of rates of growth of volumes of the legal alcoholic market, rate which were set with "quiet" 2007 and first half of 2008. In the given question of opinion of experts of the market according to a present condition of branch and its(her) immediate prospects appreciablly разнятся. According to National alcoholic association (НАА), in October, 2008 manufacture of vodka and ликероводочной production in Russia has fallen on 15,2 % in comparison with the similar period of 2007 (has made 1,2 million has given). Thus as a whole for the period since January till October, 2008 in comparison with January, - October 2007 the volume of manufacture in this category has decreased on 4,3 % (on materials of clauses(articles) " Manufacture of alcohol in Russia in January, - October 2008 ", http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lco_oktober.asp and " the Alcoholic market: will survive only the strongest ", http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lkagol2.asp).
On results of 2008, according to the research company " Business Analytics ", the volume of the Russian market of vodka in natural expression was reduced to 2,2 %. A principal cause of it became the long-term tendency of decrease(reduction) of consumption of vodka for the benefit of other alcoholic drinks. In money terms the market, according to agency, has grown on 6 % that was caused both inflationary factors, and structural changes, in particular by switching of consumers for more expensive(dear) marks of vodka.
It is confirmed also with data Росстата. On results of 2008 slump in production has made 7,6 % and 21,1 % accordingly, that is in comparison with all 2007 and separately taken December, 2007.
A number(line) of the companies engaged in import of alcohol, also have felt influence of crisis and have corrected the orders for mark aside its(her) significant reduction. In this connection the further recession of import of vodka is expected.
In January, 2009 negative тренд has proceeded: on data Росстата, manufacture of vodka again has fallen on 20,1 % in comparison with January, 2008. In the greater degree manufacture просело at the largest companies. For example, Joint-Stock Company " crop " (industrial platform ГК "Parliament") has reduced release on 28 %, the factory of " the Russian standard " in Saint Petersburg has made only 32 % from a level of January, 2008, and included in the three of the strongest manufacturers on results of 2008 "Омсквинпром" (vodka " Five lakes ") - only 27,2 % (on materials of clauses(articles) " Is closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786 and " the Market restores balance of import of alcohol ", http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/i mport_alkagol1.asp).
According to the standard segmentation of the market of vodka, production in cost up to 100 roubles concerns to a mass, national segment, from 100 up to 200 roubles - to среднеценовому, over 200 roubles - to an expensive(a dear) segment. In opinion of experts, in national segments of vodka today almost on 70 % of physical volume, in среднеценовом a segment - 25 % - 26 %; and only about 2 % in an expensive(a dear) segment (figure 3) (on materials of clause(article) " Life in crisis and after crisis ", http: // www.tatalc.ru/tatalc2/? pg=3*bl=10*md=2*iddoc=13258).
Figure 3. Structure of the market of vodka by price criterion
Source - given clauses(articles) " Life in crisis and after crisis ", http: // www.tatalc.ru/tatalc2/? pg=3*bl=10*md=2*iddoc=13258
One more tendency of the market at the end of 2008 of years became amplification(strengthening) of "centrifugal" process of stratification of consumers. So, as a whole in the vodka market consumption of production by the "average" consumer is reduced. Consumption of conditionally "dear("expensive") production from 100 - 110 roubles for a bottle grows, thus the bottom segment of consumption grows also: vodka up to 85 roubles (first of all, illegal).
Transition of consumers with expensive(dear) untwisted federal брендов on more accessible regional is swept most up in regions. For example, if manufacture of Open Society " Алвиз " (enters into holding " Синергия ") in Arkhangelsk has fallen on 57 % at taking place in the same place ЛВЗ "Устьянский" - has grown on 34 %. And in Northeast region demand for cheap vodka "Wheaten" (85-90 roubles for 0,5 л) and others regional бренды groups has grown.
Experts consider, that in process of deterioration of a standard of living of the population the market will captivate every possible "anti-recessionary" бренды. Cheap бренды will be very much claimed by the market, but because of low profitableness (no more than 1-3 %) can become economically expedient only release of large parties(sets) - from 300 thousand has given per one month - on own industrial platforms (on materials of clauses(articles) " Closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786 and " the Way of the alcoholic market of Russia: from crisis in crisis ", the data of the Centre of researches federal and the regional markets of alcohol (ЦИФРРА), http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lko_krizis.asp).
In crisis manufacturers are focused to work with distributors, instead of consumers. For example, cases of pressure of manufacturers on distributors have become frequent. You see narrowing of the market, reduction of quantity(amount) of the distributors, expected falling of consumption of alcohol aggravates a competition between separate manufacturers.
In so astable situation in the market of manufacturers the prudent distributor is naturally declined to work with the strongest and running брендами and to not limit at all itself a rulers of one manufacturer as risks are high "to drop out" of the market together with the enterprise - partner stopped manufacture.
As to manufacturers in the circumstances they twice are compelled to reduce limits and delays of payments on deliveries to distributors. According to National alcoholic association (НАА), stocks of vodka and ликероводочных products in retail trade for November, 1, 2008 appeared six times more, than for the similar period of the previous year, - at a level 8,2 million has given, that also can serve as a parameter of crisis. Wholesale and retail sellers had appreciable financial problems because of reduction of the periods of delays of payments and toughenings of conditions of distribution of credits in banks (on materials of clause(article) " the Alcoholic market: will survive only the strongest ", http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lkagol2.asp).
Further, in opinion of lines of participants of the market, cheap alcohol will continue to replace with road. And in falling sales of vodka in cost of 135-170 roubles for a bottle transition of the inhabitant to cheaper analogues and his(its) refusal to pay for бренд sees.
Experts of the Centre of researches of the federal and regional markets of alcohol (ЦИФРРА) consider, that absence of credits for development алкобизнеса will bring some enterprises to bankruptcy, and within 2009 the number of companies - manufacturers can be reduced to 50 %. Under forecasts ЦИФРРА, the rise in prices on legal alcohol on results of 2009 can make up to 50 %. As a result of crisis a number(line) of appreciable owners will manage to close the problem alcoholic companies without serious negative consequences. Crisis will result in decline of a lot for today of the large companies.
At the same time activization of the western large alcoholic companies in our market in conditions удешевления our alcoholic companies and брендов is possible(probable).
Experts mark also, that as a result of crisis the next regrouping of forces in the market is very probable. There can be a change in group of the companies of leaders of the vodka market, and at a stage of crisis again there can be advantage a development of business on the basis of one factory with regional partner дистриьбюцией. Disintegration of the usual economic unions is probable enough as a result of the previous consolidation and creation of the new unions.
One of the most negative phenomena of crisis of analytics ЦИФРРА count continuation proceeding already about several months "расползания" consumers of the Russian middle class in the nearest years - two& upwards and mainly downwards (polarization of the population).
The problem(task) of the manufacturer - to think up tools of adaptation adequate to present market conditions new бренда (for example, it can be the price, appearance of a product and so forth), however a major principle remains that the product should be "necessary", and for this purpose бренду completely not necessarily all kind shows, that it(he) "anti-recessionary" (on materials of clauses(articles) " the Alcoholic market: will survive only the strongest ", http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lkagol2.asp, " the Way of the alcoholic market of Russia Is closer to people ", http: // www.alcoonline.ru/content/info/news / $ full/1786 and ": from crisis in crisis ", the data of the Centre of researches federal and the regional markets of alcohol (ЦИФРРА), http: // www.yarmarka.net/marketplace/articles/a lko_krizis.asp).
The basic conclusions:
Vodka is the most popular strong alcoholic drink in Russia, thus the consumption level of this product in Russia is higher, than in the majority of other countries.
In 2007 there was an initial consolidation of the vodka market therefore actives have concentrated in hands of the private(individual) companies. There was also an integration of these companies. In 2008 prior to the beginning of financial crisis consolidation of the market was continued by already regional manufacturers. As a whole, on the statistical data, almost half of market is supervised by 10 largest companies - manufacturers.
Prior to the beginning of world(global) financial crisis, in favorable macroeconomic conditions the new products deduced(removed) on the market by manufacturers, belonged to среднеценовому to a segment to which belongs about 26 % of the market.
In October, 2008 crisis in the market of vodka became obvious: there was a serious recession of legal manufacture of ready alcoholic production, growth of manufacture of cheap legal and illegal production, and also transition of the population to strong, mainly cheap alcohol at the same time is obvious.
Falling of consumption of alcohol aggravates a competition between separate manufacturers therefore in the market marketing wars in struggle for the distributor are observed.
the Adverse conditions caused by financial crisis, will result some enterprises in bankruptcy therefore the quantity(amount) of companies - manufacturers can be reduced. It is expected also, that further cheap alcohol will continue to replace with road.