Growth of manufacture of milk and dairy products in 2000 is predicted on 2 % (data FAO). But together with growth of manufacture the volume of consumption is increased, is especial in countries - importers - Northern Africa, the countries of Southeast Asia and Near East, taking into account, that volumes of export of dairy production are limited to resources of such countries, as Australia, New Zealand, USA, Uruguay, Asia, Latin America. Limitation of export and growth of consumption result in reduction of resources, discrepancy of a supply and demand in the world market and give the basis to assume continuation of a rise in prices on dairy production.
The Russian market
The Russian market of dairy production depends on such factors, as: number of a livestock of dairy cattle, a level of his(its) efficiency and feeding, climatic conditions, demand for dairy production (norm of consumption, preference), a season, a situation in the world market and a policy(politics) of the state concerning cattle-breeding branch and export / import of dairy production. But, despite of reduction of number of a livestock of dairy cattle (in 1,6 times with 1990 for 1999), decrease(reduction) of norms of his(its) efficiency and feeding, and decrease(reduction) of consumption of dairy products by the population (rice. 1) this year on some directions is marked growth of manufacture and revival in the market of dairy production (fig. 2).
In I quarter 2000 manufacture of milk has made 5890 thousand tons, that on 1 % exceeds the data of the similar period of the last year (materials of the Centre of an economic conjuncture at the government of the Russian Federation).
And, according to department food and a process industry and children's feed(meal) Minsel'hoza the Russian Federation, manufacture of dairy production since January till October, 2000 has increased on 7,2 % in comparison with the same period of 1999. Whereas import of dairy production Russia from the countries both near, and distant foreign countries has decreased on 62 %. Moreover, under forecasts, export of dairy production to this year vyrastet at 5-10 time.
The market of dry milk is less optimistical: decrease(reduction) of volume of manufacture has made 87 % to a parameter of the last year (rice. 2). Break of a supply and demand and the tendency of a rise in prices are characteristic and for the world market of dry milk. The low level of the offer of this product speaks the Russian market that factories - manufacturers have limited sales of this commodity position with the purpose of increase of stocks for winter months and the beginning of spring - the period of the limited deliveries of raw material.
Falling of manufacture and the offer in the world market has forced foreign investors to look at Russia as a perspective raw-material base. The New Zealand dairy advice(council) (31 % of the world market) considers(examines) an opportunity of deliveries of dairy production from Russia. Many foreign companies put and plan to put means in development of own manufactures and dairy farms in territory of Russia. Advantages of such manufactures to foreign investors are obvious: decrease(reduction) of the cost price of production (in view of growth of the world prices), including due to reduction of transport and customs costs, reduction of term of realization of production, and also growth of sales of dairy products in territory of Russia. For example, French company Danon has opened a new factory on manufacture of dairy products in. CHehove; German company Ehrmann has opened the first factory in situated near Moscow Ramenskom and by 2002 plans to increase the revolution by territories of Russia up to 50 million $; Company Compina has opened the factory in situated near Moscow Stupine in the summer.
But the management(manual) of largest Russian industrial group Wimm-Bill-Dann optimistically estimates threat on the part of foreign investors. And it is not unreasonable. First, the company strongly keeps the position in the Russian market (according to the company, she(it) borrows(occupies) 30 % of the market of whole milk). The holding supervises 8 dairy factories: situated near Moscow factories TSaritsynsky, Lianozovsky, Ramensky, Combine of children's dairy products in Moscow, the Siberian milk, and also dairy factories in Vladivostok, Nizhni Novgorod, Novosibirsk. The management of the company assumes purchase of 5-6 enterprises in Russia and abroad, and construction of a factory in Leningrad region. Second, the competition does not become significant threat for the domestic companies while the market grows and there is an opportunity of growth: the recommended norm of consumption of dairy products of 392 kg, and in 1999 norm of consumption has made about 232 kg.
As usually, last months autumns are characterized by decrease(reduction) having bothered, reduction of manufacture of dairy production and increase of the prices. Experts of Institute of a conjuncture of the agrarian market testify, that the rise in prices on dairy products in October has made 7,6 %, in November – 10 %, and in December growth will proceed. The special rise in prices is marked on dry milk in October of 12 %, in November – 15 %. Rice 3.
These tendencies in turn confirm also monitorings of retail prices (according to the centres of System MMTS) and first of all the prices for whole milk have increased. The disorder of retail prices for 1 litre of whole milk in November has made from 5,2 (Voronezh) up to 13,3 (Vladivostok) roubles. The average price on regions changes about 7 roubles for litre. Growth of the average prices in comparison with the beginning of month has made 10-30 %. Rice 4,5.
But, despite of a seasonal rise in prices, as a whole the market of dairy production of Russia is estimated as perspective and stably developing due to domestic manufacturers and foreign investors.
On materials of press and a database of System MMTS - ../Price/PriceReport.asp
Alena the native Land
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