According to the Centre of an economic conjuncture at the Government of the Russian Federation, in 1999 the parameter of consumption of chicken eggs inhabitants of the Russian Federation was 222 piece per capita, that corresponds(meets) to a consumption level of this product in USA and the countries of EU, for example, in the same year consumption of this product in USA was 239 piece soul of the population.
Data BIKI 28.12.00. 2000 – a tentative estimation, 2001 – the forecast
According to results of past year, forecasts of the Centre of an economic conjuncture at the Government of the Russian Federation about growth of manufacture of eggs in 2000 in comparison with parameters of 1999 on 1 % were justified – 33,2 billion pieces (fig. 1.).
The analysis of market conditions on chicken eggs for 1999-2001 has shown an obvious rise in prices, and rate of a rise in prices also is increased. If by the beginning of 1999 the average retail price for chicken eggs changed about value 11,2 roubles for 10 piece, by the beginning of 2000 the average retail price has increased by 11 % up to 12,4 roubles. Probably, a principal cause of growth was general inflation, a rise in prices on energy carriers, fuel.
Dynamics(changes) of retail prices for 2000 is reflected on fig. 2. (according to monitorings retail prices of System MMTS). Annual dynamics(changes) of the prices usually allows to define(determine) seasonal changes of demand or the offer on a product. In this case, it is possible to note some falling of the prices in years(summer) months because of growth of the offer (the additional offer on the part of domestic facilities(economy)). Some falling of demand falls to the periods of church posts. Revival of demand for this product typically for the holiday periods: before the November holidays, New Year, March, 8 and especially before so a spring church holiday of Easter popular in Russia.
Dynamics(changes) of the prices within last 3 months (fig. 3.) illustrates a situation of change of the prices in the holiday period. From the beginning of December on middle of January there was a jump of the prices on the average on 13 %, the leader on a rise in prices on monitoring MMTS is Vladivostok - 35 %.
At the end of January - the beginning of February value of demand has returned on a holiday level, and concerning the prices, there was a phenomenon of a hysteresis - on the average the prices have fallen all on 3 %, and have stopped at a level of 10 %-s' growth in comparison with values by the beginning of December. The phenomenon of a hysteresis speaks increase of the cost price of eggs for manufacturers, because of influence obshcheekonomicheskih factors: expenses for the electric power, fuel, a forage, medicines, expenses for delivery grow – jaichko becomes for manufacturers "gold".
And to present time, the average price on melkooptovyh the markets on territories of the Russian Federation on chicken eggs has increased in comparison with the similar period of the last year by 17 % - 14,5 roubles for 10 piece (table 1., fig. 4.).
Table 1. Average melkooptovye the prices in the regional centres of
Though on classification of the goods in the theory of marketing an egg chicken as the food stuffs concerns to a category of the goods of daily demand, but demand for these goods in the much greater degree depends on incomes of the population, than on other products. For example, on Ukraine falling manufacture of eggs, in particular, because of decrease(reduction) of consumer ability of the population today proceeds. In Russia inhabitants of large cities – Moscow, the Moscow area, Saint Petersburg and so forth as city dwellers have higher incomes and suffer deficiency of time for preparation of food are considered as the basic consumers of the given product. The big part of the population of Russia has very much limited budget, and for many buyers this product becomes more and more inaccessible. Thus, jaichko to become "gold" both for manufacturers and for consumers.
What opinion on this product at consumers? The majority of buyers know, that the egg is very useful, unique product in the sort which contains vitamins valuable to an organism (A, D, E, B) and so minerals necessary for an organism. With reduction a free time at working part of the population and increase of number of working women, this product gets special popularity due to simplicity and speed of preparation. There is also other group of the reasons on which buyers try to limit consumption of the given product in the diet. First, this maintenance(contents) of cholesterol in an egg yolk, one of the principal causes explaining refusal of decision making about purchase, is especial at buyers of average and advanced age, caring about the health both a correct and healthy feed(meal). The second reason is an opportunity of presence in a product of medicinal substances (getting in eggs from an organism of the hen) and pathogenic bacteria (sal'monell'. And last reason is groundless, as some years back after the become frequent cases of diseases by a salmonellosis, requirements to production and sanitary requirements to process of sale of eggs were raised(increased). Therefore today, at observance elementary has imparted hygiene, the opportunity of reception of disease at the use of the given product is too small.
In summary, once again it is necessary to mention about prognoznom increase of parameters of manufacture and consumption of chicken eggs in the Russian Federation in 2001. Though in predverii manufacturers and sellers of this product expect the Great post and Easter some reduction in demand from the end of February – on the beginning of April and peak of activity in the egg market directly ahead of a sacred holiday with the appropriate rise in prices.
1/Hysteresis – (hysteresis – delay, backlog) – backlog izmennija one parameter behind change of another
Alena the native Land
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