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Crisis in the world market of coffee

Crisis in the world market of coffee

During several years the world market of coffee shows to the participants, as if they are dull students, the concept « crisis of branch », remaining during all the time in the centre of attention and discussions, in the centre of development of numerous and various projects for stabilization of situation. A problem of branch is an excess of rate of the offer growth over the rate of demand growth. In figure 1. it is shown the dynamics of world production of coffee for 1996/02 and the optimistical forecast of experts for the next 2002/03 - 122 million bags – growth by 11 % in comparison with the previous year!

Data of ICO – International Coffee Organization.

Arrangement of forces in 2001/2002 is the following: as before in the conducting three of countries - exporters of coffee are– Brazil, Columbia and Vietnam. Brazil last year occupied 31 % of all market, or 33,5 million bags of coffee, experts predict growth of export from this country in the current year to 45-47 million bags. Columbia has increased volumes of export up to 11 million bags, keeping 10 % of the world market. And the share of the Vietnamese coffee in the world market has considerably decreased from 13 % in 2000/01 to 9 % in the past 2001/02.

From the end of 2002 the realization of the program of exported coffee quality improvement, developed by the International Organization of Coffee, Vietnam supplies the world market with about 50 % of coffee grains of a sort "robusta", having more poor quality, than grains of a sort "arabika". The question about whether the Vietnamese manufacturers of coffee can deliver on the world market the coffee grains appropriate to prescribed requirements – remains open.

Data ICO – International Coffee Organization.

One of the largest importers in the world market of coffee are such countries, as USA, Germany, Italy and Japan. But in spite of the fact that the general consumption level of coffee is increasing, which dynamics for 2000/02 is shown in figure 3, the growth of consumption changes about 1-1,3 % (figure 3). Whereas in figure 1 it is also possible to see a growing line тренда, reflecting an average level of manufacture growth - about 3,1 %.

Result is crisis of overproduction, increase of stocks, falling of the world prices (figure 4). However at the end of 2002 the prices for coffee were stabilized a little, for example, in December the price for coffee "arabica" has amounted to 64б75 cent of USA for pound, on coffee "robusta" - 38,68 cent / pound.

Data ICO – International Coffee Organization.

As consequence of falling of the prices for coffee last years it is marked as well falling of a degree of production quality in the world market. It remaines to hope, that the program of improvement of coffee quality, implemented from the end of 2002 will influence positively on development of the market in new year, and increase of the prices at the end of 2002 is the beginning of market stabilization.

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Alena Rodina

HelenRodina@mail.ru

Marketing reviews of the food market of Russia, and also reviews on other themes you can read ../DocumOborot/DocumPubShow.asp?FolderID=454&RegionID=&CurrentPage=1&select1=144&select1=

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